Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice
In the past few months, the fortunes of many of the assets in the crypto sphere have not been particularly promising on the charts. Bitcoin and Ethereum have led the game of Musical Chairs, with smaller participants such as Loopring seeing massive gains in the process. However, these smaller coins have also been bleeding on the charts for a while now.
LRC- 1D
Source: LRC/USDT on TradingView
Loopring sat at an area that offered an interesting risk-to-reward opportunity- but things could quickly go south. The price has been in a downtrend since December. It has flipped multiple longer-term support levels to resistance on the way south.
At $1.23 lay the latest of the series of lower highs that LRC has posted on its downtrend. This was the level bulls would need to flip to support to show that the market has shifted to a bullish bias.
At $0.74 lay a long-term support level that has been tested for demand over the past month. The price did see a bounce and post a lower high, as already mentioned, at $1.23. However, this bounce was relatively weak and early March saw an even weaker bounce to graze $0.81 before dropping.
Since repeated tests of a level weaken it, it was likely that LRC would be headed further south in search of liquidity in the weeks to come.
Rationale
Source: LRC/USDT on TradingView
The RSI has formed an exaggerated bullish divergence in the past couple of weeks. This type of divergence is a weak one and is unlikely to change the overall trend. It could see LRC bounce toward $0.9.
The DMI showed a strong bearish trend in progress with both the -DI (red) and the ADX (yellow) above 20.
The OBV has been declining in recent weeks as well. It pales in comparison to the volume of November, but it did highlight that steady selling has dominated the past three weeks.
Conclusion
The indicators and the repeated tests of $0.74 as support showed that further downside was likely for Loopring in the weeks to come. Risk-to-reward wise, the $0.74 level could serve as a buying opportunity with a tight stop loss to aggressive traders. Given market conditions and the momentum behind LRC, a drop below $0.74 appeared to be brewing after a possible, brief bounce toward $0.85-$0.9.